October weather this month can be summarized as the following: “A few nice days, but overall it has been TOO HOT!” This week, we’ve had cool mornings, but very warm afternoons. For this final weekend of October, there will be no difference compared to most of this month. However, record-tying and record-breaking temperatures are in the forecast for East Texas. Also, we have some rain chances and cooler temperatures that look to occur by late next week.
A summertime-like upper pattern will occur this weekend for us, and this will lead to the well above normal temperatures. Our average high in East Texas is in the lower 70s, but it will NOT feel like late October! Thanks to the upper level high pressure center over the Southern Plains, it keeps any storm systems away and just heats us up during the day (Image 2).
At the surface on Saturday (Image 3), Sunday (Image 4), and Monday (Image 5), high temperatures easily hit the middle to upper 80s for us. The will mean that records could be broken over the next three days. Here are the record high temperatures in East Texas (with yellow depicting where records could either be tied or broken), (Image 6).
PATTERN SHIFT: Rain & “cooler” temperatures
A desperate cry for cooler weather & some rain has been put in by many of you (as you all know how Fall 2010 played out and what the result was in Summer 2011). Rain chances are looking sparse for East Texas over the next week or so, but we do have a couple of opportunities to see some showers or a thunderstorm.
That upper high leading to record warmth over the coming days will be retreating to the south/southeast. This will put us between two systems—upper high over Florida/Deep South, and upper level low over the southwestern states (Image 7). As this happens, we will see increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and this will lead to area showers possible by Tuesday, most likely Wednesday.
While it’s early to get specific on timing, the European model shows rain chances increasing by the afternoon/evening on Tuesday (Image 8), and most likely on Wednesday (Image 9). With the increasing rain chances for the first days of November, temperatures should stay mostly in the 70s for us.
Late next week and heading into the following weekend, forecast models show a cold front to move through late Thursday & Friday. The result will be temperatures falling back into the lower 70s for highs. So good news, cooler weather is on the horizon.
We will continue to keep you updated both on-air and online for further updates.