UT Tyler Poll: Joe Biden now a slight favorite in Texas

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FILE – In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020, left, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. Trump has accused his Democratic rival Biden of having connections to the “radical left” and has pilloried his relationship with China, his record on criminal justice, his plans for the pandemic and even his son’s business dealings. (AP Photo, File)

TYLER, Texas (KETK) – A UT Tyler and Dallas Morning News Poll have found that Joe Biden is now a slight favorite ahead of President Trump for the November election. Biden leads 46-41 after a poll three months ago found the two to be in a statistical tie.

Despite the finding, Democrats still have a logn way to go in terms of turning the Lone Star Stat blue. The poll also found that Sen. John Cornyn still holds a substantial lead over both MJ Hegar and state Sen. Royce West.

Cornyn’s challenger will be chosen Tuesday as part of the runoff elections that were postponed from May due to the coronavirus.

Support for Trump in East Texas still remains strong and there is an event Monday afternoon that will feature free yard signs.

It will be at 110 N. College Avenue in Tyler from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m.

The poll ranged from questions about the election, wearing face masks, and social justice issues in America.

“In the wake of last month’s social unrest, Texans remain deeply ambivalent about the Black Lives Matter movement and related issues of racial injustice.”

Dr. Kenneth Bryant Jr., Assistant Professor of Political Science

The state was deeply divided about kneeling during the national anthem, which resurged following the death of George Floyd back in May. Texas split evenly 47-47 on their approval for it.

Methodology

The Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler Poll reflects a statewide random sample of 1,909
registered voters during the eight days between June 29 and July 7. The mixed-mode
sample includes 129 registered voters who were surveyed by the Center for Opinion
Research over the phone and 1,780 registered voters that were randomly selected from a
panel of registered voters that are contacted to take surveys by the Dynata. The online and
phone surveys were conducted in English and Spanish.

The data were weighted to be representative of the Texas register voter population. Iterative
weighting was used to balance sample demographics to the state population parameters,
specifically the estimated gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education of registered voters in
the state using an iterated process known as raking. These parameters were derived from
2018 Current Population Survey to reflect Texas’s electorate. The use of these weights in
statistical analysis ensures that the characteristics of the sample closely reflect the
characteristics of registered voters in Texas. This was done separately for the probability
phone sample and the online sample, before one weight was generated by standardizing the
non-probability online sample with the probability phone sample (see Elliott 2009).

In this poll, the sampling error for 1,909 registered voters in Texas is +/- 2.24 percentage
points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The survey’s design asked additional questions to
898 registered voters who indicated they voted in the Democratic Primary (margin of error of
+/- 3.27%).

Copyright 2020 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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