We had an active month of March with three waves of severe weather come across East Texas. The damage was mainly from straight-line winds, but we did have some hail damage too. Now we’re in April, and even more severe storm chances are on the horizon. The first coming Thursday, and possibly another round this weekend.
This next round of severe weather potential continues to remain low enough not to warrant an East Texas Storm Team Severe Weather Alert Day. However, we are monitoring trends from our computer models in case more storms try to become active in East Texas on Thursday afternoon and evening.
WEATHER SET UP:
Our next system is associated with a cold front stalled out on in the Central Plains. It will intensify and gain momentum as an upper low comes out of the western states and moves across the Southern Plains. Storms have been ongoing across Oklahoma and we had a few storms in East Texas on Wednesday night.
This will result in numerous storms to develop and possibly turn severe, with a greater chance to our east and northeast.
For us, we are under a “Slight Risk” of severe storms for our eastern counties—this means scattered strong to severe storms are possible. Our primary concerns would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Even the areas in the Marginal Risk could see an isolated severe storm.
FUTURECAST – THURSDAY:
Let’s look ahead to Thursday’s latest model data. Thursday morning will be mainly cloudy with spotty showers around our area. This should not be severe, however some storms will be possible. Our model has rain letting up into the early afternoon.
Thursday afternoon, our focus will turn to our northeast where storms will start to develop ahead of a cold front. Most storms look to stay into Arkansas & Louisiana, but they will graze our eastern areas mainly.
Thursday evening, while most storms should be moving out, there is still a chance for additional storm development because of the daytime heating (highs near 80) and the approaching cold front. Our model does have some storms along the front, but confidence in this is not high at this time of this being severe.
So, severe storms widespread in East Texas is looking unlikely. We will keep off and on rain chances through the day Thursday, with a severe storm risk in the afternoon and evening for areas east of U.S. Highway 69.
The greater severe threat will likely be this weekend. Our next weather system brings a lot of rain and some severe weather perhaps on Saturday. Rain amounts by next Monday could be between 1-3 inches!
Stay tuned for updates. We’re right in the middle of severe weather season, and it’s a good time to be prepared for the storms. Make sure you’ve downloaded the new East Texas Storm Team app to track storms and get custom alerts for multiple locations. New features in this app including lightning and storm alerts, rotating storm alerts, and custom messages from your East Texas Storm Team. Download today for Apple and Android devices.