Weather Talk

Rain & storms Tuesday, small hail threat

Best time for rain is the afternoon and night; an inch or more likely

TYLER, Texas (KETK) - An active day of weather is expected on Tuesday, especially from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Rain and storms are a good bet during this period, and the rain can be heavy enough to precipitate as hail. With all of this, we will stay rather chilly and cool for East Texas.

SETUP

South winds have increased for East Texas, which is already noted with a significant deck of mid-level clouds over our area. With clouds already overhead, the Gulf moisture will increase for us, leading to light rain and drizzle this evening and overnight for our southern counties.

We are also awaiting a cold front from Southern Plains which will enhance our rain/storm threat on Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This is the greatest time period of rain and storms for East Texas.

FUTURECAST

Tuesday early morning

Patchy drizzle and light rain develop as humidity and moisture increases. This is most likely in Deep East Texas, but Futurecast does paint some rain as far north as I-20.

Tuesday (most of day)

On Tuesday, overcast skies with light rain and drizzle around during the day. Our rain chances start to go up by Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday late afternoon and evening

We will look for showers and storms to increase in coverage. Because we’re in the cooler airmass (temperatures mainly in the 50s for us) and a layer of warmer air above the surface, rain can be heavy enough to produce hail at times. You can note that with the darker colors that Futurecast shows.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

By 9PM and into the evening, we will have a good line of showers and storms moving through East Texas with the cold front. Heavy rain still a threat with lightning & thunder at times. Rain ending from Northwest to Southeast through the overnight hours.

Wednesday morning

A few computer models keep rain showers into the morning commute on Wednesday. This chance is the greatest in Deep East Texas. Everyone stays in the cloudy and colder conditions with temperatures falling to the 40s for the morning.

Wednesday dayside

Clouds are forecasted to hang tough during the day Wednesday, with a possible new batch of light rain during the afternoon—mainly for Deep East Texas.

SMALL SEVERE THREAT, BENEFICIAL RAIN

The Storm Prediction Center has East Texas in a “Marginal” risk for seeing a severe storm. The only concern for us will be hail that could reach the size of a quarter (which equates to severe criteria). However, East Texas Storm Team Meteorologists do not see that as a widespread threat for East Texas—thus a Severe Weather Alert Day is not necessary at this time.

Our main concern is the MUCH NEEDED RAIN for us. Futurecast Rain Amounts showing at least 1 inch for most of East Texas, some isolated amounts up to 2 inches. We will take anything we can get.

Meteorologist Eric Manges has the latest forecast Tuesday morning on KETK Today & FOX51 Good Day, and Chief Meteorologist Scott Chesner has updated timing with Futurecast at 11AM on East Texas Live.


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