TYLER, Texas (KETK) - Afternoon high temperatures in the last 5 days have been well above November standards. While East Texas is used to seeing spurts of Fall seasonal weather, we’re about to enter into another bout of it this week. Also, rain chances are returning to reinforce the cooler air.
We’re monitoring a stationary front that will turn back to a cold front on Tuesday. On Monday morning, that front was closer to I-30, and now it has lifted back north of the Red River. Below is the latest surface map.
This front will be responsible for the cooler temperatures and some rain on Tuesday.
FUTURECAST – TUESDAY
Latest Futurecast model has the front around the central/northern counties on Tuesday with cloudy skies and a few spotty showers during the day.
Now, the key question is how far south does the front advance into our area during the day? Forecast models seem to be coming in good agreement that the front will stall along I-20 corridor during the day and then move south into Deep East Texas late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.
If this is the case, then there’s good reason to believe that temperatures in our northern counties down to Smith & Gregg counties might stay in the 60s for highs (closer to 70 and higher south of TX HWY 31 corridor). A very tricky forecast—something we will be monitoring closely. We will have true seasonal weather in the northern areas while southern counties will continue to be in the muggy environment.
Rain chances on Tuesday look to be minimal, but gradually increase during the day.
WEDNESDAY’S RAIN & COLDER WEATHER
Tuesday is our transition day, and Wednesday will be the real deal with seasonal weather returning!
An upper disturbance from the Rocky Mountains will move into the Southern Plains and generate an overrunning rain event for East Texas. Overrunning is a meteorological term describing cooler air at the surface and warmer temperatures at about 5,000 feet. This will result in a cold rain (some heavy rain and isolated t-storm possible).
The Texas view of Futurecast indicates that rain develops overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, with periods of rain through the day.
East Texas will likely see another wet commute coming for our area on Wednesday. Showers increase for the morning and will continue through late afternoon.
The rain will keep temperatures for the afternoon ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s, with feels like temperatures in the middle to lower 40s thanks to Northeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Rain forecast amounts have come down a tad, but still looking likely up to an inch in most areas, with some isolated amounts in the 1.50” – 2” range (primarily in Deep East Texas).
Chief Meteorologist Scott Chesner updates our weather forecast this evening on KETK & FOX51 and I will be back in the morning with the latest forecast on KETK Today & FOX51 Good Day.