TYLER, Texas (KETK) - Spring officially began Monday morning at 5:29AM Central Time, but did it really feel like Spring to you? It certainly did not to me, but of course Texas weather modifies seasons with usually warmer than average temperatures. By the end of the week, we enter a pattern that looks like “Texas Spring” with the return of storms and severe weather.
NEARLY ALL OF THIS WEEK: DRY, WARM, HUMID!
That headline explains our entire forecast throughout this week. We have the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over Texas & the Southern Plains. This upper high suppresses any threat of rain and nearly all cloud cover. Because this feature is over us, the track of all storm systems stays well north—from the Pacific Northwest to the East Coast. This will be the trend through Wednesday.
Because of the upper high in control (and even when it weakens by late week ahead of storm system by Friday), temperatures will continue to be well above average for late March.
STORMY END TO WORK WEEK—SEVERE THREAT
Texas weather is about to get active as March – May are the peak months for severe weather. Our first widespread threat of storms comes on Friday. As a matter of fact, the Storm Prediction Center already outlining East Texas (specifically, from I-35 in TX/OK to I-40/I-55 in TN/MS) under a risk of severe storms.
We are still a few days out from this event, so I don’t want to get too specific. However, I want to show the setup & latest forecast model output.
A strong upper level low is spinning over the open waters of the Pacific. It’s already spreading energy (translated to rain) for the West Coast.
This system will become stronger over the course of Tuesday/Wednesday, taking a dive toward the Four-Corner states and eventually setting up east of the Rocky Mountains by Friday morning. Because of its location by Friday, energy (both dynamical & wind) will be increasing for East Texas, thus why we’re in the “greatest risk” area to see severe weather on Friday.
Looking at the forecast models for Friday, the American model showing that showers and storms could be ongoing near I-35 with a dryline in play. However by late Friday morning and into the afternoon, storms will be moving right over into East Texas, leading to a greater chance of severe storms for us.
One factor that you’ll hear KETK Meteorologists talk about on-air is timing. That’s key for severity of storms. IF this timing verifies (Friday afternoon/evening), then we could be looking at a decent chance of severe storms. The reason—peak daytime heating. Storms need heating to fuel, and any sort of sunshine can aid in the strength of thunderstorms.
We also are seeing increasing wind energy too, which would surely support a damaging wind threat, but also the possibility of a few tornadoes.
Again, I don’t want to get too specific now because it’s very early—however confidence is good that we will have a few strong storms Friday, and without a doubt rain & storms.
Stay tuned for updates as we fine tune this forecast.